Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy

Abstract. The Azores are an active volcanic region that offers exceptional conditions for nature-based tourism, one of the main axes economic growth in archipelago. A future eruption may have long-term consequences to this sector. Therefore, it is fundamental assess its vulnerability hazards order try mitigate associated risk. This study proposes a new approach assessing impact explosive eruptions on tourism We considered two eruptive scenarios Fogo volcano (São Miguel Island), most probable (Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI, 4 sub-Plinian eruption) and worst-case (VEI 5 Plinian eruption), both producing tephra fallout pyroclastic density currents. results numerical simulations were overlaid with tourism-related buildings infrastructure Vila Franca do Campo municipality identify elements at loss present value method was used estimate benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years different scenarios. assessment using 2018 indicators reveals near-total-destruction scenario, approximately EUR 145 million (considering 2 % discount rate). can also be applied other regions, geologic sectors.